Best Sites for Daily Bitcoin Prediction Markets and How to Trade Them
Daily BTC prediction markets let traders take Yes or No positions on Bitcoin’s price at a specified closing time. Each contract asks whether BTC will finish above, below, or within a stated price level or range when the market settles.
Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Gemini list daily BTC contracts as price ladders, price ranges, or up-or-down calls. Ladders offer several closing-price thresholds, while range markets ask whether Bitcoin will finish between two prices. Up-or-down contracts compare BTC’s closing price with its starting price. Formats and settlement times vary, so check each platform’s contract rules before choosing where to trade.
Top Prediction Market Sites for Bitcoin Daily Markets
How a daily Bitcoin market is set up
Behind every daily market are yes and no contracts priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and as with most prediction markets, that price doubles as the crowd’s estimate of how likely the outcome is. The apps label things a little differently, yet three formats keep coming up.
Above or below a set price
To start with, the most common format gives you a ladder of price levels, each with its own yes and no contracts on whether Bitcoin finishes at or above that level. We counted more than 40 levels on Polymarket’s daily “BTC Above/Below” market, and here’s how two of them looked on October 31, ahead of the 5pm ET close.
- $77,250 or above – Yes at 85¢
- $77,500 or above – Yes at 47¢
With Bitcoin trading right around $77,500 at the time, the higher level was close to a coin flip, while traders already saw the lower one as likely.
Picking the right price range
Then there’s the range format, which splits the possible closing prices into brackets so that only the one holding Bitcoin’s final price settles as yes. Kalshi lists it as “BTC price range today”, with each bracket covering $250, and Polymarket’s version on the same afternoon read like this.
- $77,250 to $77,499.99 – Yes at 41¢
- $77,500 to $77,749.99 – Yes at 35¢
Because Bitcoin has to finish inside such a slim range, a single bracket tends to trade lower than a nearby level on the ladder.
Up or down across the day
Finally, Polymarket’s “BTC Up or Down 1d” skips levels and brackets altogether, asking only whether Bitcoin will finish the day higher or lower than where it started. With a few hours left in one recent window, Up was trading at 95¢, a sign that Bitcoin was holding above its opening price and traders didn’t expect that to change.
Four US apps with daily Bitcoin contracts
We chose these four because each offers daily Bitcoin contracts as part of its wider crypto prediction markets lineup. Their US prediction-market operations are offered through exchanges designated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees regulated event-contract markets. The main differences are the shorter trading windows available and the number of daily formats each platform lists.
| App | Daily BTC formats | 5 min | 15 min | Hourly | 4-hour | Daily ETH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Up or down, above or below, price range | Available | Available | Available | None | Available |
| Kalshi | Above or below, price range | None | Available | Available | None | Available |
| Crypto.com | Above or below | Available | Available | Available | Available | Available |
| Gemini | Above or below | Available | Available | Available | None | Available |
Polymarket – Simple app, plenty of daily options
- Numerous markets on sports, crypto, the economy, and politics
- Regulated by the CFTC
- Multiple rewards for existing traders
- Crypto payments only
Polymarket is the only app in this group with all three daily formats, so the ladder, the brackets and the up or down call are all a tap apart. Each one closes at 5pm ET, and a fresh Up or Down window opens as soon as the previous one settles, weekends included.
Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple get the same daily Above/Below and Price Range markets, closing right alongside Bitcoin. For a faster turnaround, the app also lists five-minute, 15-minute and hourly BTC prediction markets, where the price levels are just $100 apart.
We picked Polymarket mainly for how readable its daily ladders are, as every price shows in cents right next to the matching percentage. It’s available in every state except Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Utah, and Washington, and the app is listed as Polymarket on the App Store and Google Play.
Kalshi – Where most of the action is
- Broad range of markets
- 24/7 live chat support
- Huge reputation
- Native mobile app
- Transaction fees
Kalshi offers two formats for its daily Bitcoin markets: a price ladder and a price range market. The ladder, titled “BTC price today at 5pm EST,” lists several price thresholds, with each Yes or No contract asking whether Bitcoin will finish at or above a particular level. The range market gives you price brackets to choose from. The ladder generally attracts more trading activity than the range format.
The same two formats are available for Ethereum. This means daily ETH prediction markets on Kalshi include a 5pm ET price ladder and a separate range market. Kalshi also lists daily markets for other cryptocurrencies, including Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Zcash. You can use the timeframe filters in its crypto section to find the markets you’re looking for.
You can access Kalshi through its website or its apps for iOS and Android. Market availability may vary by state, so check which contracts you can access from your location. New users can also check our banners for available Kalshi promo codes.
Crypto.com – The go-to for 4-hour windows
- Welcome bonus
- Broad range of markets
- High-performance mobile app
- Strict ID verification
Crypto.com’s daily Bitcoin market follows the ladder format and usually closes at 6pm ET. That extra hour keeps it open after Kalshi and Polymarket have settled their daily contracts, which leaves room to react to any late-afternoon move.
For something between an hourly round and a full day, its 4-hour BTC prediction markets give the news a few hours to move the price instead of a whole session. Five-minute, 15-minute and hourly rounds are there as well, along with weekly and monthly contracts.
You can fund your account with US dollars or crypto, and the platform is secure and available in English. New York and Arizona residents can’t trade on any of its markets, while in Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Illinois, only sports contracts are restricted, so crypto contracts stay open there. Crypto.com does have a welcome bonus, but it doesn’t apply to prediction trading.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Gemini – From five minutes to a full month
Pros and cons of daily BTC prediction markets
A full day on the clock has its upsides, and one catch too.
- More time to monitor price movements and market news
- A set closing time makes settlement easier to anticipate
- Multiple contract formats offer different ways to take a position
- Bitcoin’s price can move significantly before the market closes
Choosing the Bitcoin window that suits you
Picking between daily BTC prediction markets comes down to the format you’re comfortable reading and the shorter windows you’d like alongside it. Polymarket gathers all three daily formats in one app, Kalshi brings the busiest ladders, Crypto.com adds a 4-hour option and a later 6pm ET close, and Gemini stretches from five-minute rounds to a full month.
Whichever app you choose, keep an eye on the closing time and how far Bitcoin has moved since the morning, as prices can shift a lot in the last few hours. To give it a try, hit any of our banners on this page, sign up, and pick the daily Bitcoin market that suits you best.
Our Most Trusted Prediction Market Sites
Read More
Daily BTC contract FAQs
- ⏰ What time do daily BTC contracts close?
Daily Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket close at 5pm ET, while Crypto.com’s usually close at 6pm ET. Gemini shows its own closing time on each market.
- 📉 What happens when a daily BTC contract settles the other way?
It settles at $0, so nothing comes back from that position. A correct contract settles at $1 minus any trading fees, which is why a 47¢ price lines up with roughly a 47% chance.
- 🗺️ Can you trade daily BTC contracts in every state?
Availability varies by platform and market type. Polymarket US is unavailable in Nevada, while Crypto.com does not offer prediction markets in Arizona or New York. Crypto.com also restricts sports contracts in several other states, but those restrictions don’t necessarily apply to daily BTC markets. Check each app for current state and contract availability before trading.